Girard, A. D. (2024).The NCAA transfer portal and success in college basketball. The Young Researcher, 8(1), 34-47. http://www.theyoungresearcher.com/papers/girard.pdf

Abstract
College basketball was completely transformed by changes to the NCAA Transfer Portal in April of 2021. The NCAA no longer requires transfers to sit out a year of competition at their new school. Research has been conducted regarding both the Transfer Portal and success in college basketball. However, prior to this study, there was no research linking the two subjects. Therefore, I developed the following research question: When considering the newly adjusted Transfer Portal, is the number of players transferring into or out of a Division One men’s college basketball team correlated with that team’s win percentage in the following season? I collected data on the number of transfers into and out of each Division One men’s college basketball program in the years 2021 and 2022 and on the wins and losses of these programs during the same years. Using the Spearman’s rank correlation, I examined the correlation between several transfer-related variables and win percentage. During both 2021 and 2022, transfers in and total transfers (the sum of transfers in and transfers out) were correlated with win percentage (p=0.003 and 0.002, respectively, in 2021; p=0.006 and 0.03, respectively, in 2022) such that higher numbers of transfers correlated with higher win percentages. I conclude that more transfers into a Division One men’s college basketball team program correlates with a higher win percentage, which may be explained by a positive effect of transfers on win percentage or by transfers being attracted to winning programs.

Keywords: College, Basketball, Transfer, NCAA

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